During a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on September 23, 2024, Trump said: "The Russian invasion of Ukraine would have never happened if I were President. Not even a possibility. I know Putin very well, and he would never have done it. I would have said, 'Vladimir, you're not going in,' and that would have been it."
Other than his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump has said that his administration's toughness on Russia during Trump-45, including sanctions and stopping the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, deterred Russian aggression. We have consistently opined in these columns (over 65 times) since February 2022 that the conflict started due to the weak leadership of the Biden administration, which Trump says emboldened Russia. Additionally, Trump has asserted that he would have negotiated a deal to avoid the conflict, preventing the loss of lives and destruction, and that there was "zero chance" of war under his presidency.
The liberal media have often mocked and challenged President Trump's assertions throughout the campaign, and since taking office as the 47th commander-in-chief.
To those critics who countered him then and up until last Friday, insisting that he was engaging in his usual Trumpian hyperbole and rhetoric, Trump proved what a master diplomat he is. In fewer than 3½ days, Trump directed his VP, JD Vance, and Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, to engage in difficult diplomacy between the top leadership of two archrivals, Islamabad and New Delhi. The war between the two nuclear-armed nations was escalating. Almost immediately, the two sides announced a truce.
A recent TIPP Poll finds that 57% of Americans, including 82% of Republicans, are optimistic that the Trump administration will resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Meanwhile, 61% of Republicans say President Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize if he succeeds in ending the war, highlighting the trust his base places in his diplomatic leadership.
Trump's actions laid the ground for the new pope's first Sunday address as pontiff. It was fitting that another American, recently elected to steer the world's 1.4 billion Catholics, devoted most of his entire speech to calling for world peace with a powerful message: "Never again war!" Pope Leo XIV's remarks were a poignant call to action to European leaders and Ukraine's President Zelenskyy, who met in Kyiv and were setting up roadblocks, such as demanding a ceasefire as a precondition to agree to a potential one-on-one meeting between Ukraine and Russia.
Trump posted on Truth Social to apply additional pressure on Zelenskyy:
President Putin of Russia doesn't want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the BLOODBATH. Ukraine should agree to this, IMMEDIATELY. At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the US, will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly...HAVE THE MEETING NOW!!!
A few hours later, Fox News reported that Zelenskyy had agreed to meet with Putin.
Contrast President Trump's approach to world peace and prosperity with that of the world's so-called leaders, from former President Biden and the entire Washington political establishment to European leaders, who funded an "as-long-as-it-takes" war "just" to uphold a political point that Russia violated international law when it invaded Ukraine. We use "just" with a heavy heart because this particular conflict cannot be cast in black and white. The two countries have been fighting over far deeper issues than territory for at least 20 years.
Russia's insistence that Ukraine not be part of NATO because Moscow did not want American weapons across its border was a demand that the Kremlin has been making since 2007. It was the same position that the United States took in 1962 during the Cuban missile crisis when President JFK threatened the Soviet Union with nuclear Armageddon if the Soviets did not withdraw their weapons systems from Cuba.
Had then-President Biden made efforts to quickly de-escalate the situation in the initial days of the conflict (like Trump did in the case of the India-Pakistan conflict), it would have been phenomenally consequential if successful.
Let us examine the state of war on the fourth day. Over 350,000 refugees had fled Ukraine, per the UN. Russian forces had closed in on Kyiv from the north and west, engaging in battles near Irpin and Bucha. In Kharkiv, intense street fighting repelled Russian advances. Russian troops captured parts of Kherson but faced resistance in the south. Ukraine reported destroying Russian convoys and downing aircraft. Russia deployed thermobaric weapons and escalated missile strikes.
Civilians in Ukraine began organizing makeshift defenses, including Molotov cocktails. Ukrainian forces, backed by territorial defense units and civilians, held defensive lines in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and other cities. Ukraine reported hundreds of soldiers killed or wounded by February 27, with heavy losses in urban battles. The UN reported that at least 102 civilians were killed and 304 injured by February 27, covering the first four days. Western estimates suggested ~2,000–3,000 Russian casualties (killed/wounded) by this date, with losses from destroyed vehicles and aircraft.
On February 27, the world condemned Russia's escalation, with the US and NATO allies increasing sanctions (e.g., targeting Russian banks and SWIFT) and supplying Ukraine with weapons like Javelin missiles. No direct troop deployment was planned. Biden called Putin's nuclear alert "dangerous rhetoric."
We recount a freeze-shot of the war to show that while dire and extremely troubling, the situation had barely escalated compared to what it is today. The Ukraine War is the deadliest in Europe in 80 years, with estimates of up to 1,000,000 total casualties (killed and wounded) across both sides by mid-2024. In February 2025, the Quincy Institute estimated 250,000 total deaths. Approximately 6.9 million Ukrainians are refugees, with 6.2 million in Europe as of August 2024. The Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4), published in February 2025, estimates $524 billion (€506 billion) over the next decade to rebuild Ukraine, up from $486 billion in 2024.
All of the above destruction was the Washington NeoCons' effort to prove a point in international law.
No, thank you. We will instead celebrate President Trump's high-stakes diplomacy to "nip things in the bud" and Pope Leo XIV's loud sermon, "Never again war!" any day.
TIPP Picks
Selected articles from tippinsights.com and more
1. First American-Born Pope Draws Praise From Trump, Across Political Lines—Fred Lucas, The Daily Signal
2. When It Comes To Tariff Controversies, Trump Still Holds An Edge — Barely: I&I/TIPP Poll—Terry Jones, TIPP Insights
3. Trump’s Trade Reset Gains Traction In Geneva—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
4. The Guns Of Kashmir—Editorial Board, TIPP Insights
5. Can Trump Secure A New Iran Deal?—Ian Bremmer, Project Syndicate
6. California Price At Pump Could Hit $8.44/Gallon In ’26 Due To Refinery Closures, Regulations—Kenneth Schrupp, The Daily Signal
7. Bernie Sanders: Private Jets ‘Only Way’ To Travel To ‘Fight The Oligarchy’ Rallies—Fred Lucas, The Daily Signal
8. Fed Up With Benjamin Netanyahu?—Philip Giraldi, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
9. Joe Biden Gives The Big Lie One Last Little Push—John Loftus, DCNF
10. The Real Reason Universities Want Foreign Students And Oppose Deporting Troublemakers—Simon Hankinson, The Daily Signal
11. Trump To Sign EO Reducing Cost Of Prescription Drugs—Melanie Wilcox, DCNF
12. ‘Substantial Progress’ Made With China In Key Trade Talks, Bessent Says—Hailey Gomez, DCNF
13. Why Elon Musk Is Right: The Case Against Subsidizing Amtrak—J.D. Wong, Mises Wire
14. Dr. Oz Warns Of Another Major Challenge Coming To US Health Care—Hailey Gomez, DCNF
15. Dem Senate Candidates Running In ‘Toss-Up’ States Co-Sponsor Bill To Eliminate Women’s Sports—Adam Pack, DCNF
16. ‘Paying Far More Attention’: Rubio Turns His Gaze To America’s Backyard After Years Of Neglect From Washington—Wallace White, Daily Caller
17. States Urge Clinton-Appointed Judge To Stop ‘Extreme’ Effort To Undermine Trump’s Authority Over Agencies—Katelynn Richardson, DCNF
18. ‘Democrats Aren’t Afraid To Rename Anything’: Marjorie Taylor Greene Makes Case For Gulf Of America—Daily Signal Staff, The Daily Signal
19. House Votes To Rename Gulf Of Mexico To Gulf Of America—Jacob Adams, The Daily Signal
20. President Trump Announces Trade Deal With Britain To ‘Fast-Track American Goods’—Tyler O'Neil, The Daily Signal
21. Transportation Secretary Unveils Overhaul Of ‘Antiquated’ Air Traffic Control Systems—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal
22. Iran Hawks Graham, Cotton Draw Red Line for Deal: No Nuke Program For Tehran—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
23. GOP Lawmaker Introduces Bill To Combat Antisemitism On College Campuses—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
24. COLUMBIA CHAOS: Radicals Disrupt Campus, Invite Trump Crackdown—Jarrett Stepman, The Daily Signal
25. Protecting Medicaid Means Ending Preferential Federal Funding—Nina Owcharenko Schaefer, The Daily Signal
26. Trump Freezes Aid to South Africa Over White Farmers' Persecution—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
27. Trump Pushes GOP To Unite Behind “One, Big, Beautiful Bill”—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
28. “No Nuclear Blackmail” Says India's Modi—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
29. Hamas Hostage Edan Alexander Freed As Trump Begins Middle East Trip—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
30. Ukraine Open To Trump Joining Russia Talks In Türkiye—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
31. China Tariffs Won't Return To 145% After The 90-Day Pause—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
32. RFK: Trump Did What Democrats Only Talked About With Drug Prices—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
33. Trade Ultimatum Brought India And Pakistan To Peace Table: Trump—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
34. "Pharma Companies Won't Be Affected:" Trump Says Drug Firms Won’t Be Hit—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
35. Prescription Drugs Will Drop 59% Under New Order: Trump—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
TIPP Market Brief – May 13, 2025
Your Morning Snapshot
📊 Market Snapshot
- S&P 500: 5,844.19 – ▲ 3.26%
- 10-Year Yield: 4.452% – ▲ 8 basis points
- Crude Oil (WTI): $61.96 – ▲ 1.54%
- Bitcoin (BTC): $102,598.18 ▼
- US Dollar Index (USD): 101.58 – ▼ 0.19%
- Gold: $3,235.52 – ▼ 2.67%
Bigger Charts: $SPX | $TNX | $WTIC | $BTCUSD | $USD | $GOLD
📈 Featured Stock
Our pick for today’s featured stock
📰 News & Headlines
Is Okta, Inc. (OKTA) the Unstoppable Growth Stock to Invest in Now?—Bob Karr, Insider Monkey
Here is What to Know Beyond Why Okta, Inc. (OKTA) is a Trending Stock—Zacks
⭐Recent Featured Stocks
Root, Inc.(ROOT) (5/12)
Sea Limited (SE) (5/9)
Philip Morris (PM) (5/8)
Comstock Resources (CRK) (5/7)
Spotify (SPOT) (5/6)
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) (5/5)
Stride, Inc. (LRN). (5/2)
NetfliX (NFLX) (5/1)
Palantir (PLTR) (4/30)
Guardant Health (GH) (4/29)
More here
🧠 Macro Insight
U.S. futures are slightly lower as investors wait for today’s inflation report. The April CPI reading could influence the Fed’s next move on interest rates.
The U.S. also cut tariffs on low-value shipments from China, easing pressure on online retailers. China lifted its ban on Boeing (BA) plane deliveries, another sign of improving trade ties.
Oil prices (WTI) are steady near two-week highs as markets watch for more clarity on U.S.-China relations.
📅 Key Events Today
- 08:30 AM ET – CPI (April)
Measures overall inflation and influences Fed policy and consumer sentiment.
